China’s Perspective: Kamala Harris Replacing Biden And The Potential Trump 2.0

As discussions around the 2024 U.S. Presidential elections heat up, the possibility of Kamala Harris stepping into the presidential role is drawing attention worldwide, particularly in China. Experts suggest that Beijing is cautiously observing this potential transition. Harris, known for her assertive stance on foreign policy, may pose challenges for China, especially in terms of human rights and trade issues.

Concerns Over Biden’s Health and Leadership

With growing concerns about Joe Biden’s age and health, speculation around Kamala Harris assuming the presidency has intensified. From Beijing’s perspective, this potential shift could lead to a recalibration of U.S. foreign policy, especially as Harris may push for a more robust stance against China. This scenario has left Chinese officials pondering how to navigate a potentially more adversarial relationship.

The Trump 2.0 Scenario: Beijing’s Worries

Another possibility that looms large in China’s strategic calculations is the return of Donald Trump to the White House. The prospect of Trump 2.0 is viewed with caution, as his previous term was marked by significant tensions between the two superpowers. A second Trump administration could mean a return to unpredictable trade wars and a tougher stance on Chinese technology companies, impacting bilateral relations.

Implications for US-China Relations

Both scenarios—Harris replacing Biden or Trump making a comeback—pose distinct challenges for US-China relations. Experts argue that while Harris may lead a more predictable but firm policy towards China, Trump’s return could bring back the volatility that characterized his first term. In either case, Beijing is preparing for a period of strategic uncertainty, adjusting its diplomatic and economic strategies accordingly.

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